How Many Americans Can't Swim: National Estimates Reconciled, 2014 to 2023

Summary

• 15.4% of US adults said they do not know how to swim in October to November 2023, the latest national estimate (CDC MMWR).
• CDC put that at an estimated 40 million US adults in 2023; applying the same 15.4% to the July 2025 Census adult population gives 40.8 million (PC&S calculation, U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025).
• 32.4% of US adults in 2023 either could not swim or were comfortable only in water where they can stand, a stricter definition that more than doubles the headline (PC&S sum of NCHS Rapid Surveys System categories).
• 54.7% of US adults in 2023 had never taken a swim lesson, 3.6 times the share who cannot swim (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data).
• 36.8% of Black non-Hispanic US adults and 25.8% of Hispanic adults said they cannot swim in 2023, compared with 6.9% of White non-Hispanic adults (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
• The 2019 World Risk Poll found 16.2% of US residents aged 15 and over could not swim without assistance, close to the 2023 CDC figure (PC&S tabulation of Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll data).
• The widely repeated 54% comes from a 2014 Red Cross poll and counts adults who cannot swim or lack any of five self-assessed water competency skills, not adults who cannot swim (American Red Cross).
• 74% of US parents said in January 2017 that their child aged 6 to 18 can swim independently: 80% of White, 66% of Hispanic and 49% of Black parents (Mott Poll, University of Michigan).

How many Americans can't swim: the published estimates by definition

Three surveys that ask adults whether they can swim at all land between 15.4% and 20%. The larger figures that circulate, 32.4% and 54%, use stricter definitions: swimming in deep water, or passing five self-assessed water competency skills.

The National Center for Health Statistics asked a national panel of US adults in October to November 2023: ‘How would you rate your swimming skill level?’ (NCHS RSS questionnaire). The four answers were ‘do not know how to swim’, ‘comfortable in water where [I] can stand up’, ‘can swim in water over [my] head’ and ‘can swim multiple strokes efficiently’. 15.4% of US adults chose ‘do not know how to swim’ (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).

The survey had 7,046 completed interviews from two probability-based online panels, with cumulative response rates of 3.8% and 4.0% (NCHS quality profile). NCHS calibrated the weights to the National Health Interview Survey to reduce coverage and nonresponse bias (CDC MMWR).

The 2019 Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, run by Gallup, asked ‘Are you able to swim without any assistance at all?’ (World Risk Poll 2019 report). PC&S tabulated the 1,014 US answers from the public microdata: 16.2% of US residents aged 15 and over said no (Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll data).

The American Red Cross poll of 1,024 US adults in April 2014 asked ‘Do you know how to swim?’ and found ‘one in five can’t swim’ (American Red Cross Water Safety Poll). The same poll is the source of the widely quoted 54%: ‘more than half of all Americans (54 percent) either can’t swim or don’t have all of the basic swimming skills’ (American Red Cross).

The defensible range: 15% to 20% cannot swim at all, about a third cannot swim in deep water

Read side by side, the surveys do not contradict each other. They measure three different things, and each has its own defensible range.

• Cannot swim at all: 15.4% (CDC/NCHS, 2023), 16.2% (World Risk Poll, 2019, age 15+) and 20% (Red Cross, 2014). The best current estimate is 15.4%, with a 95% interval of 14.3% to 16.6% (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
• Cannot swim in water over their head: 32.4% of US adults in 2023, the sum of ‘do not know how to swim’ (15.4%) and ‘comfortable in water where they can stand’ (17.0%) (PC&S calculation from NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
• Cannot swim or lack at least one of five water competency skills: 54% of US adults in 2014 (American Red Cross). Multiplying the 80% who said they can swim by the 56% of them with all five skills gives 44.8% with all five, or 55.2% without, consistent with the published 54% after rounding (PC&S check).
• Never had a swim lesson: 54.7% of US adults in 2023 (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data). This measures lessons, not ability.

Who is least likely to swim: race, income, education, age and region in 2023

The 2023 federal survey shows large and statistically significant differences by race and ethnicity, income and education, and smaller ones by sex, age and region. The groups with the lowest self-reported skill also report the least time around pools.

36.8% of Black non-Hispanic US adults said they do not know how to swim in 2023, compared with 25.8% of Hispanic adults, 22.4% of adults of other races and 6.9% of White non-Hispanic adults (NCHS Rapid Surveys System). The 95% intervals for Black (32.4% to 41.4%) and White (6.1% to 7.8%) adults do not overlap.

Household income tracks the same pattern. 28.0% of US adults below the federal poverty level said they cannot swim in 2023, against 24.5% at 100% to 199% of poverty and 10.7% at 200% or more (NCHS Rapid Surveys System). Education shows a similar gradient: 23.0% of adults with a high school education or less, 13.7% with some college and 8.3% with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Sex and age gaps are smaller. 19.4% of US women and 11.2% of US men said they cannot swim in 2023 (NCHS Rapid Surveys System). 18.6% of adults aged 65 and older said the same, compared with 12.4% of adults aged 18 to 29 (CDC MMWR). By region, the South had the highest share at 19.1%, followed by the Northeast (14.6%), the Midwest (12.8%) and the West (12.3%).

Why the swimming gap between Black and White Americans is wide

Within the same 2023 survey, Black adults were 5.3 times as likely as White adults to say they cannot swim. CDC links the gap to access: historical pool segregation and closures, less time around pools today, and cost and scheduling barriers to lessons.

The 2023 gap between Black (36.8%) and White (6.9%) non-Hispanic US adults who said they cannot swim is 29.9 percentage points, a ratio of 5.3 (PC&S calculation from NCHS Rapid Surveys System). The Hispanic to White ratio is 3.7. Counting adults comfortable only where they can stand, 63.8% of Black adults and 20.6% of White adults could not swim in water over their head in 2023.

The 2014 Red Cross poll found a smaller gap: 31% of African American and 16% of white adults said they cannot swim, a ratio of 1.9 (American Red Cross Water Safety Poll). The two surveys differ in year, question, sample size (1,024 versus 7,046) and method, so the change in the gap should not be read as a trend.

Exposure differs as well. 67.0% of Black non-Hispanic US adults spent no time at a swimming pool in the six months before the 2023 survey, compared with 43.9% of White and 47.7% of Hispanic adults (CDC MMWR). CDC notes that, because of this lower exposure, population-based drowning rates ‘might be underestimating disparities’.

CDC’s 2024 report gives historical context: ‘Historically, racially segregated pools led to fewer swimming options for Black persons,’ and ‘When integration of public pools was mandated, many pools closed, fewer new pools were built, and private swimming clubs emerged that restricted access’ (CDC MMWR). A 2021 Red Cross study of caregivers, funded through a CDC cooperative agreement and based on a quota sample rather than a national random sample, found work schedules (14% of caregivers), lesson cost (12%) and a child’s fear of water (8%) among the reported barriers, although ‘None’ was the most common answer (24%) (American Red Cross 2021).

Parental ability also matters. In the 2017 USA Swimming Foundation study, 78% of African-American children whose parents had no or low swimming ability also lacked good swimming skills (USA Swimming Foundation). That study used YMCA participants in five cities, so it describes those communities rather than the US as a whole.

Never had a swim lesson is not the same as can't swim

54.7% of US adults never had a lesson but only 15.4% cannot swim. At least 39.3% of adults never had a lesson yet report some swimming ability, most of them self-taught or taught by family.

NCHS asked about private lessons, group lessons and any other swim lesson. 14.2% of US adults had taken a private lesson from a professional and 33.9% a group lesson; 45.3% had taken a lesson of any kind (CDC MMWR). That leaves 54.7% who never had one (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data).

Because only 15.4% cannot swim, at least 39.3% of US adults never took a lesson yet report some swimming ability (PC&S lower bound: 54.7% minus 15.4%). 35.2% of US adults said they taught themselves to swim and 38.7% learned from a friend or relative (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data). NCHS counts adults who cannot swim in the denominators of those two shares (NCHS technical notes).

The never-lesson share is highest among Hispanic adults (71.9%), adults below the poverty level (73.4%) and adults with a high school education or less (72.8%) (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data). Among Hispanic adults, the gap between never having a lesson (71.9%) and not swimming (25.8%) is 46.1 points, and 42.7% said they taught themselves.

How many Americans can't swim in 2025: shares converted to people

Applying the 2023 shares to the Census Bureau’s July 2025 adult population gives about 40.8 million adults who cannot swim, 85.9 million who cannot swim in water over their head and 145.0 million who never had a lesson.

The Census Bureau estimates 265,121,306 civilian noninstitutionalized US adults on July 1, 2025, the universe closest to the NCHS survey (U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025). 15.4% of that total is 40.8 million adults who cannot swim, with a range of 37.9 million to 44.0 million from the survey’s 95% interval (PC&S calculation).

The same method gives 85.9 million US adults who cannot swim in water over their head (32.4%) and 145.0 million who never had a swim lesson (54.7%, range 141.0 million to 149.0 million). Using the larger resident adult population (269,763,509) instead gives 41.5 million non-swimmers (Census resident file).

By group, the estimates are 26.7 million women and 14.3 million men, 12.8 million Hispanic adults, 11.4 million Black non-Hispanic adults, 10.8 million White non-Hispanic adults and 11.8 million adults aged 65 and older (PC&S calculation). CDC’s own weighted counts for 2023 were 39.5 million in total and 11.7 million, 11.4 million and 10.9 million for Black, Hispanic and White adults (CDC MMWR).

Do most US kids know how to swim? Four studies, four definitions

There is no federal estimate of children’s swimming ability. Parent-report surveys put independent swimming at about three in four children aged 6 to 18, but far fewer children meet the Red Cross five-skill standard, and city studies show wide racial gaps.

The national Mott Poll of 1,543 parents in January 2017 found 74% said their child aged 6 to 18 can swim independently (Mott Poll, University of Michigan). By race and ethnicity, 80% of White, 66% of Hispanic and 49% of Black parents said so. 55% of White, 39% of Hispanic and 37% of Black parents said their child had taken swimming lessons.

The Red Cross 2014 poll used the stricter five-skill standard: 39% of US parents of children aged 4 to 17 said their child could perform all five skills, 35% for children aged 4 to 12 and 49% for teens aged 13 to 17 (American Red Cross Water Safety Poll). That base was 201 parents, with a margin of error of 6.9 points (American Red Cross).

The USA Swimming Foundation’s 2017 study, run with the University of Memphis and UNLV, reported no or low swimming ability among 64% of African-American, 45% of Hispanic and 40% of Caucasian children (USA Swimming Foundation). The sample was 1,373 youth aged 4 to 18 recruited through YMCAs in five cities (Irwin et al., 2018), and the authors state the sample ‘may or may not represent the US’ (Pharr et al., 2018). The 2010 round of the same study reported 70% and 42% for African-American and Caucasian children.

The most recent study, from one Hartford, Connecticut pediatric emergency department in 2024, classified 23.4% of children in a birth-to-19 sample as swim competent (competency was assessed for children aged 1 and older) and found 67% rated as poor swimmers by parents, including 75.5% of non-Hispanic Black, 77.1% of Hispanic and 53.7% of non-Hispanic white children (Felisca et al., Pediatrics Open Science). The sample includes toddlers and is not national.

An independent check: the World Risk Poll's US sample, 2019

A separate survey with a different question, year and age floor produces almost the same national figure as CDC: 16.2% versus 15.4%. It also shows the same gaps by sex, age, income and education.

PC&S tabulated the US respondents in the 2019 World Risk Poll microdata, using the poll’s within-country weight. 16.2% of US residents aged 15 and over said they could not swim without assistance, with an indicative margin of about 2.9 points (PC&S tabulation of Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll data). That is 0.8 points above the CDC 2023 estimate of 15.4%.

21.9% of US women and 10.4% of US men in the 2019 poll could not swim unassisted, a ratio of 2.1, against 1.7 in the CDC survey. 25.7% of US adults aged 65 and older said they could not, compared with 18.6% in the CDC survey. The poorest income quintile (22.1%) was 2.0 times as likely as the richest (10.9%) to say they cannot swim (PC&S tabulation).

Worldwide, 55% of people aged 15 and older said they cannot swim unassisted in 2019, and 24% in high-income countries (Gallup). The PC&S tabulation reproduces 54.9% worldwide and 22.8% for high-income countries, which places the US share below the high-income average.

How the 54%, 40 million and 64% figures circulate

The three figures most often quoted on this topic come from different surveys and measure different things. Each is accurate for its own definition and often misread when repeated.

The 54% figure dates from an April 2014 Red Cross poll. A Red Cross regional release in May 2022 repeated it as ‘more than half of all Americans (54 percent) either can’t swim or don’t have all of the basic swimming skills’ without a survey date (American Red Cross, 2022). It counts missing water competency skills, not inability to swim.

The 40 million figure is CDC’s rounded weighted count of 39.5 million US adults who said they do not know how to swim in October to November 2023 (CDC MMWR). It applies to adults only.

The 64% figure is the share of African-American children with no or low swimming ability in the 2017 USA Swimming Foundation study of YMCA participants in five cities (USA Swimming Foundation). The Consumer Product Safety Commission’s Pool Safely blog repeated it in 2018 (CPSC Pool Safely). It is a city-sample figure based on self- or parent-rated ability, not a national rate of children who cannot swim.

Reconciling the estimates

Download the calculation sheet (CSV)

What holds up and what does not

1. 15.4% (95% CI 14.3% to 16.6%) of US adults rated their skill as ‘do not know how to swim’ in October to November 2023 (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
2. CDC’s weighted count for that answer was 39.5 million US adults in 2023; MMWR rounds it to 40 million (CDC MMWR).
3. 17.0% of US adults in 2023 were comfortable only in water where they can stand, 31.8% could swim in water over their head and 35.8% could swim multiple strokes efficiently (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
4. Women in the US were more likely than men to say they cannot swim in 2023: 19.4% versus 11.2%, a ratio of 1.7 (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
5. 18.6% of US adults aged 65 and older said they cannot swim in 2023, compared with 12.4% of adults aged 18 to 29 (CDC MMWR).
6. 28.0% of US adults with household income below the federal poverty level said they cannot swim in 2023, 2.6 times the 10.7% among adults at 200% of poverty or more (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
7. 23.0% of US adults with a high school education or less said they cannot swim in 2023, compared with 8.3% of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
8. The South had the highest regional share of US adults who cannot swim in 2023, 19.1%, against 12.3% in the West (NCHS Rapid Surveys System).
9. 71.9% of Hispanic US adults, 63.1% of Black adults and 48.2% of White adults had never taken a swim lesson in 2023 (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data).
10. 35.2% of US adults in 2023 said they taught themselves to swim and 38.7% learned from a friend or relative (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data).
11. 67.0% of Black non-Hispanic US adults spent no time at a swimming pool in the six months before the 2023 survey, compared with 43.9% of White adults and 47.7% of Hispanic adults (CDC MMWR).
12. In the April 2014 Red Cross poll, 80% of US adults said they could swim, but only 56% of those self-described swimmers reported all five basic water competency skills (American Red Cross).
13. In the 2019 World Risk Poll, 21.9% of US women and 10.4% of US men aged 15 and over said they could not swim without assistance (PC&S tabulation of Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll data).
14. 39% of US parents of children aged 4 to 17 said in April 2014 that their child could perform all five water competency skills (American Red Cross Water Safety Poll).
15. Among the NCHS Rapid Surveys rounds numbered 1 to 7 in the data.cdc.gov dataset, only Round 2 covers swimming, so the October to November 2023 figures remain the latest federal estimate (NCHS Rapid Surveys System data).

Most recent filings and releases

• 2026-09Lloyd’s Register Foundation re-issued its combined World Risk Poll data file on 2 September 2026; the swim question still appears only in the 2019 wave, so 16.2% (US, age 15+) is the latest World Risk Poll reading (Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll data).
• 2026-06The U.S. Census Bureau released Vintage 2025 national population estimates by age in June 2026; this report uses the July 1, 2025 civilian noninstitutionalized adult total of 265,121,306 to convert shares into people (Census file layout).
• 2026-02A February 2026 Pediatrics Open Science study of 1,100 parents at a Hartford, Connecticut emergency department found 23.4% of children met all five Red Cross water competency skills by parent report (Felisca et al., Pediatrics Open Science).
• 2024-05CDC’s 23 May 2024 Vital Signs report published the first federal estimates of adult swimming skill: 15.4% cannot swim and 54.7% never had a lesson (CDC MMWR).

Related questions

Questions and answers

Source grading

Tier 1: primary and government sources (12)

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Vital Signs: Drowning Death Rates, Self-Reported Swimming Skill, Swimming Lesson Participation, and Recreational Water Exposure, United States, 2019 to 2023 (MMWR 73(20))
• National Center for Health Statistics, CDC: Rapid Surveys System Round 2: Swimming (Table 1, self-rated swimming skill level)
• National Center for Health Statistics, CDC (data.cdc.gov): NCHS Rapid Surveys System dataset (p89x-xx88), Round 2 Swimming indicators
• National Center for Health Statistics, CDC: Rapid Surveys System Round 2 questionnaire
• National Center for Health Statistics, CDC: Rapid Surveys System Round 2 technical notes
• National Center for Health Statistics, CDC: Rapid Surveys System Round 2 quality profile
• U.S. Census Bureau: Vintage 2025 monthly national population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, civilian noninstitutionalized population
• U.S. Census Bureau: Vintage 2025 monthly national population estimates, resident population
• U.S. Census Bureau: NC-EST2025-ALLDATA file layout
• University of Memphis Digital Commons: Youth swimming ability and associated factors in the United States, 2010-17 (American Journal of Health Behavior, 2018), abstract
• University of Nevada, Las Vegas: Predictors of Swimming Ability among Children and Adolescents in the United States (Sports, 2018)
• American Academy of Pediatrics: Racial Disparities in Swimming Ability and Drowning Risk Factors (Pediatrics Open Science, February 2026), Wayback Machine copy

Tier 2: trade bodies, public companies, market research (11)

• Lloyd's Register Foundation: World Risk Poll data (2019 wave microdata, combined file dated 2 September 2026)
• Lloyd's Register Foundation: World Risk Poll 2019 report (questionnaire appendix)
• Gallup: Majority Worldwide Cannot Swim; Most of Them Are Women
• American Red Cross: American Red Cross Water Safety Poll (report dated 5 May 2014)
• American Red Cross: New National Survey Finds More than Half of All Americans Can't Swim or Perform Basic Swim Safety Skills (20 May 2014)
• American Red Cross: Red Cross Survey Finds 61% of Children, Including More than Half of All Teens, Can't Perform Basic Swim Safety Skills (14 May 2015)
• American Red Cross: Barriers to Accessing Swim Lessons and Water Safety Information (Phase 1 findings, July 2021)
• American Red Cross: American Red Cross Stresses Vigilance and Strong Swimming Skills as Keys to Water Safety (North Texas, 24 May 2022)
• USA Swimming Foundation (PR Newswire): USA Swimming Foundation Announces 5-10% Increase in Swimming Ability Among U.S. Children (25 May 2017)
• C.S. Mott Children's Hospital National Poll on Children's Health, University of Michigan: Water safety for kids: Staying afloat with lessons, supervision (Mott Poll, May 2017)
• U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission: Addressing Racial Disparities in Water Safety (Pool Safely blog, 22 February 2018)

Bibliography

1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Vital Signs: Drowning Death Rates, Self-Reported Swimming Skill, Swimming Lesson Participation, and Recreational Water Exposure, United States, 2019 to 2023 (MMWR 73(20)). Accessed 2026-10-07.
2. National Center for Health Statistics, CDC. Rapid Surveys System Round 2: Swimming (Table 1, self-rated swimming skill level). Accessed 2026-10-07.
3. National Center for Health Statistics, CDC (data.cdc.gov). NCHS Rapid Surveys System dataset (p89x-xx88), Round 2 Swimming indicators. Accessed 2026-10-07.
4. National Center for Health Statistics, CDC. Rapid Surveys System Round 2 questionnaire. Accessed 2026-10-07.
5. National Center for Health Statistics, CDC. Rapid Surveys System Round 2 technical notes. Accessed 2026-10-07.
6. National Center for Health Statistics, CDC. Rapid Surveys System Round 2 quality profile. Accessed 2026-10-07.
7. U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2025 monthly national population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, civilian noninstitutionalized population. Accessed 2026-10-07.
8. U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2025 monthly national population estimates, resident population. Accessed 2026-10-07.
9. U.S. Census Bureau. NC-EST2025-ALLDATA file layout. Accessed 2026-10-07.
10. University of Memphis Digital Commons. Youth swimming ability and associated factors in the United States, 2010-17 (American Journal of Health Behavior, 2018), abstract. Accessed 2026-10-07.
11. University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Predictors of Swimming Ability among Children and Adolescents in the United States (Sports, 2018). Accessed 2026-10-07.
12. American Academy of Pediatrics. Racial Disparities in Swimming Ability and Drowning Risk Factors (Pediatrics Open Science, February 2026), Wayback Machine copy. Accessed 2026-10-07.
13. Lloyd's Register Foundation. World Risk Poll data (2019 wave microdata, combined file dated 2 September 2026). Accessed 2026-10-07.
14. Lloyd's Register Foundation. World Risk Poll 2019 report (questionnaire appendix). Accessed 2026-10-07.
15. Gallup. Majority Worldwide Cannot Swim; Most of Them Are Women. Accessed 2026-10-07.
16. American Red Cross. American Red Cross Water Safety Poll (report dated 5 May 2014). Accessed 2026-10-07.
17. American Red Cross. New National Survey Finds More than Half of All Americans Can't Swim or Perform Basic Swim Safety Skills (20 May 2014). Accessed 2026-10-07.
18. American Red Cross. Red Cross Survey Finds 61% of Children, Including More than Half of All Teens, Can't Perform Basic Swim Safety Skills (14 May 2015). Accessed 2026-10-07.
19. American Red Cross. Barriers to Accessing Swim Lessons and Water Safety Information (Phase 1 findings, July 2021). Accessed 2026-10-07.
20. American Red Cross. American Red Cross Stresses Vigilance and Strong Swimming Skills as Keys to Water Safety (North Texas, 24 May 2022). Accessed 2026-10-07.
21. USA Swimming Foundation (PR Newswire). USA Swimming Foundation Announces 5-10% Increase in Swimming Ability Among U.S. Children (25 May 2017). Accessed 2026-10-07.
22. C.S. Mott Children's Hospital National Poll on Children's Health, University of Michigan. Water safety for kids: Staying afloat with lessons, supervision (Mott Poll, May 2017). Accessed 2026-10-07.
23. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Addressing Racial Disparities in Water Safety (Pool Safely blog, 22 February 2018). Accessed 2026-10-07.